NFL Week Two had its ups and downs, but we managed to grind out a split (3-3) on our recommended plays. If you also played Oakland, our free play, you managed to wipe out the vig you may have lost on the three losers I gave you. Indeed, we live to fight another day. Not only that, but in my observation over the years, Week Three presents some of the greatest value that we will find all year. Oddsmakers are challenged to place a number that adequately reflects the public sentiment in its assessment of two teams. This is a difficult task when you take into account that you have teams that may have over or underachieved along the way to compiling their two game record. Before getting into that, lets take a quick look at what we had last week, how we fared, and why we got the outcome we did.
First, the losers.Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Minnesota all disappointed us. We learned that Jacksonville has some serious issues at quarterback as the mighty Luke McCown compiled an unprecedented 1.4 Quarterback rating. (How do you get a 1.4 QB rating? 11– 25 for 91 yards and 4 INTs gets you there). We should have known better. But we will learn from this too, as I expect that Gabbert has won the job down in Jacksonville, and if any kind of passing threat exists, the Jags could surge. Really, throw out McCown’s horrendous effort, and the game was not all that lopsided. MJD was able to get almost 5 yards per rush, and the Jets only outgained Jax by a margin of 283 to 203, with the Jets dominating Time of Possession by roughly a 34:26 ratio. I see Jax improving and being undervalued, while the Jets may have some work to do. As for Baltimore, what can you say?
In horse racing, we call this effort a bounce. It happens in this game at this level too, and there is simply no way to predict when it will happen, although it is much more likely to occur on the road than at home. The final loss, Minnesota, had this game wrapped up before giving up two touchdowns in the last six-and-a-half minutes. As we thought, Minnesota controlled the clock, rushed for 186 yards, and out-gained TB by a margin of 398-335. Penalties and a key turnover were the difference in this one. Another tough loss.We won with Pittsburgh, who bounced back with an impressive offensive performance to cover the number with ease. We also took Houston, who dominated Miami (who has NEVER beaten the Texans) before the Dolphins made a late threat that fell short.
Finally, we felt good about the Falcons in the Dome matching up with Philly, and they came through despite some tense moments. Philly is really, really good people.We also gave out the free pick – Oakland – that lost but covered after blowing a huge lead to Buffalo. The Raiders have a star in the making in Denarius Moore, and he has found a nice spot in the Oakland offense. Moore can absolutely fly, and he makes some unbelievable catches. Check him out if you haven’t already.So, 3-3 on recommended playsand 1-0 on the freebie. This week, I feel about as good as I have felt in a long time about a card. There are some games up there that I don’t believe the public really has a good idea on as reflected by the pointspreads and line movements. Last year in week three, I went 3-1 and all three winners were underdogs, winning by margins of 7, 14, and 21 points. I like what I see this week too, and I am pretty confident that I will have a multi-unit play, my first with TheGeekSheetSports.
For those that have not read the introduction on my page, I was a perfect 5-0 on these plays last year. I only recommend them when I feel like there is an overwhelming probability for a cover.